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MAY 3,  2016

No "Short Takes" tonight so we can cover the critical Indiana primary.

THE DECISIVE NIGHT – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:   Donald Trump handily defeated Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary, forcing Cruz to announce that he is suspending his campaign.  Trump is now the presumptive Republican nominee for president. 

On the other side, Bernie Sanders won a stunning, unexpected victory over Hillary Clinton in a sign that the Democratic base is far from united on Clinton as its nominee.  However, delegates from Indiana are awarded proportionally, and Bernie's gain in convention votes will be very small.  Sanders, statistically, can probably not get the nomination, but he's staying in the race to press for his views to be adopted the Democratic convention.  And remember that Clinton still faces the results of an FBI investigation into her cyber activities while secretary of state.

The Republican national chairman, Reince Priebus, immediately called for the GOP to unite around Trump.  It's hard to know how effective that appeal will be.  Trump is despised by a large chunk of the party, and his seeming inability to inject some class into his campaign hasn't helped his cause.  Republicans running for the Senate and House might, in many cases, distance themselves from their party's presidential nominee, declaring themselves "independent Republicans," and saving their own careers.

There are rumors of a "Republicans for Hillary," which wouldn't surprise me.  There are also the usual rumors about a third party, but I don't see who its leader could be.

The election is six months from this week.  That is still an enormous amount of time, and a major event could disrupt our political process.   But, right now, it's Trump vs. Clinton.

May 3, 2016       Permalink

INDIANA TODAY – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:   Indiana is voting today in what could be the decisive primary on the GOP side.  Conventional wisdom holds that if Trump wins, especially if he wins big, he will have a clear path to the nomination.  And I think the conventional wisdom is right.

At the same time, the ugliness of this primary season cannot be overstated.  I've seen rough campaigns, but nothing approaching the sheer viciousness on the Republican side, with candidates attacking each other in wild, undisciplined assaults.  There is real hatred.  The party is tearing itself apart, with venerable conservative institutions like The National Review subjected to the most vile rants.  Ronald Reagan, who authored the GOP's "Eleventh Commandment," that thou shalt not criticize another Republican, must be spinning in his grave.  Consider this, from The Hill:

Ted Cruz laid into Donald Trump with his most personal and toughest criticism since the GOP presidential campaign began, calling him a "pathological liar" on Tuesday who doesn't understand the difference between the truth and lies.

Cruz prefaced his comments by saying that for the first time, he wanted to say exactly what he thought of Trump after the front-runner suggested Cruz's father might have had something to do with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.

The Texas senator accused Trump of being both disingenuous and self-aggrandizing, saying Trump was a "narcissist" at a level "I don't think this country has ever seen."

"Donald Trump is such a narcissist that Barack Obama looks at him and says, 'Dude, what's your problem?' " Cruz said.

“Whatever lie he’s telling, in that minute he believes it, Cruz added. "But the man is utterly amoral. Morality does not exist for him.”

He criticized Trump for tweeting an unflattering picture of his wife, Heidi Cruz, saying it is just one piece of evidence that Trump is scared of “strong women.”

“It’s why he went after Heidi directly, attacked her and smeared her," Cruz said. "Heidi isn’t pretty enough for him. ... Donald is a bully. ... Bullies don’t come from strength, they come from weakness. ... There’s a reason Donald builds giant buildings and puts his name on them everywhere he goes."

"Donald has a real problem with women," Cruz continued.

COMMENT:  And that's only a sample...and I'm afraid much of it is true.  Whether you are for or against Trump, he has injected a kind of poison into this campaign that is an insult to the presidency.  I am willing to keep an open mind, but I wish he would provide some evidence that my concerns about his character are misplaced.  He can't seem to rise to that point, and he'd better learn fast.

May 3, 2016       Permalink

MAJOR COURT DECISION – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  This may well go largely unnoticed because so much attention today will be on the Indiana primary, but it is a major state court decision that, we hope, will lead to some common sense throughout the legal system.  From the Washington Times:

DENVER — The Colorado Supreme Court dealt a devastating setback Monday to the state’s environmental movement by throwing out local bans on hydraulic fracturing.

The court ruled that the outright ban approved in Longmont and five-year moratorium passed in Fort Collins conflict with state law authorizing and regulating hydraulic fracturing, an extraction process used by the oil and gas industry.

Dan Haley, president and CEO of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association, which challenged the bans in court, called the decision “not just a win for the energy industry but for the people of Colorado who rely on affordable and dependable energy and a strong economy.”

“It sends a strong message to anyone trying to drive this vital industry out of the state that those efforts will not be tolerated at any level,” Mr. Haley said in a statement.

Meanwhile, opponents of fracking decried the ruling, saying it flies in the face of a community’s ability to safeguard its health.

“Today’s decision deals a devastating blow not just to Longmont residents, but to all Coloradans who have been stripped of a democratic process that should allow us the right to protect our health, safety and property from the impacts of this dangerous industrial activity,” said Lauren Petrie, Rocky Mountain region director with Food & Water Watch.

Colorado moved to the center of the anti-fracking movement with measures approved by voters in a half-dozen communities, primarily liberal college towns with little or no energy-industry ties, to stop oil and gas development, starting with the fracking ban added to the Longmont city charter in 2012.

COMMENT:  I don't deny that fracking has its problems and its risks, but these, as with any technology, are being worked out.  Fracking has enormous advantages, the first being that it brings America closer to energy independence.  It has allowed previously untapped energy sources to be tapped.

Despite all the fashionable yapping about "green energy," this country, and indeed the developed world, will be dependent on fossil fuels for decades to come, maybe even for a century.  Fracking will keep the cost of those fuels down, and strengthen economic growth. 

May 3, 2016       Permalink 

OBAMACARE WOBBLY – AT 9:06 A.M. ET:  And it could be a major issue in the presidential campaign, one that won't help Hillary.  From Investor's Business Daily: 

“I am not the first president to take up this cause, but I am determined to be the last.” That was President Obama in a speech before Congress back in Sept. 2009, pitching the health reform plan he’d sign six months later.

It doesn’t look like he’s going to get his wish.

In the three-plus years since the ObamaCare exchanges opened, the law is teetering on the edge of the abyss. Enrollment is well below expectations, not enough young people are signing up, insurers are failing or dropping out of the program, and, by all appearances, premiums are set to spike even higher than last year.

Now a Kaiser Family Foundation survey released late last week shows that the public is far from satisfied with what Obama claimed was the be-all and end-all of reform.

Overall, just 38% have a favorable view of ObamaCare, which continues a more or less steady decline in approval since last summer. Fully 43% want the law either repealed or scaled back, while just 14% say that Congress should “move forward with implementing the law as it is.”

Nor does the public feel that ObamaCare solved much. In fact, the survey finds that health care ranks No. 4 on the list of priorities for this presidential election, right after jobs, national security and immigration.

When asked specifically about health care, the two top issues are the “Affordable Care Act” and “health care costs.” In other words, the biggest health care concerns people have right now are the law Obama signed, and the problem it was supposed to address.

Even Democrats are growing restive with ObamaCare, with 25% of Democrats now saying they have an unfavorable view of the law, up from 19% last month.

To be sure, a big chunk of this group (40%) wants the law expanded to cover more people (despite the fact that this is what ObamaCare itself was supposed to achieve), but 28% of these Democrats now say ObamaCare should either be repealed or scaled back.

The public’s view of the law is not likely to improve much when insurers start to announce their proposed rate hikes for 2017. Next year marks the end of ObamaCare’s $25 billion temporary “reinsurance” program, which was basically a subsidy scheme designed to hold down premiums in ObamaCare’s first three years.

COMMENT:  Obamacare was always based on a myth, that 40 million Americans were uninsured.  True, many of those 40 million did not have formal health plans, but all Americans were covered by some kind of legally required protection, including Medicaid.  We did not see bodies lying in the street. 

Obamacare is falling apart because the numbers never seem to add up.  There will be huge increases in premiums in the next few years.  Most Americans wanted improvements in the old system, a balance between private and public medical programs.  As Obamacare sinks, the left will demand, not a creative solution, but the European single-payer system, and then the real battle that the left has sought will be on.

May 3,  2016     Permalink

MAY 2,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – From the New York Post:   A Texas high school teacher who teaches French could have to bid adieu to his job — because he doesn’t know how to speak the language.
Albert Moyer has been teaching French classes at the Houston Independent School District’s Energy Institute High School for about five months, but the only word he knows how to speak is “bonjour,” students told local TV station KHOU.  “I thought it was a joke, I couldn’t believe this was happening,” said Sharonda White, whose son Nathanial is in one of Moyer’s classes.  Nathanial said his teacher, who only took one year of French in high school, can’t even answer any of the students’ questions.  “We’ve got to search it up on our own,” he said, adding that most of his class is teaching themselves by looking up translations on Google.  Outrageous that anyone would complain about this.  I think "bonjour" is a lovely word, and who needs any others, given the educational standards in our country today.  So, bonjour, readers.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – From Daily Caller:   The University of New Hampshire (UNH) has issued an apology after spending $17,520 on a single table for a newly-renovated dining hall.  The chef’s table in Holloway Commons, custom-made at a workshop in Chicago and then shipped out to the school, doesn’t just provide elevated support for food and other items. It also provides an illuminated top with no fewer than eight LED lights that change colors throughout the day. According to The New Hampshire, the fancy table was purchased as part of a master plan to “draw members of the UNH and Durham communities into the dining hall to experience what it has to offer.”  I'd rather see the money spent on that table than on the "oppression studies" department.

DISCOVERY? – From AP:     CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Astronomers searching for life beyond our solar system may need to look no farther than a little, feeble nearby star.  A Belgian-led team reported Monday that it's discovered three Earth-sized planets orbiting an ultra-cool dwarf star less than 40 light-years away. It's the first time planets have been found around this type of star — and it opens up new, rich territory in the search for extraterrestrial life.  Because this star is so close and so faint, astronomers can study the atmospheres of these three temperate exoplanets and, eventually, hunt for signs of possible life. They're already making atmospheric observations, in fact, using NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope. The Hubble Space Telescope will join in next week.   The first thing this administration will do if it encounters a new planet is learn what it's doing about climate change.

May 2,  2016     Permalink

INDIANA – AT 10:45 A.M. ET:  The Indiana primary is tomorrow.   The sense I get from polls and reporting is that the stars are not aligning for Ted Cruz.  Cruz seems to be weakening at the time he needs strength the most.

Part of the problem is the sheer momentum built up by Donald Trump, especially with recent primary victories in the northeast.  Momentum creates a vision of inevitability, a sense that the people's will has been expressed.  There may be more emotion in this than rationality, but emotion is a critical part of politics.  I recall how Kennedy built a vision of inevitability in 1960, even though support for him in the Democratic Party was remarkably thin.

I've also noticed more press to the effect that Trump can recover from some of his awful poll numbers among certain groups.  Currently he has a 70% disapproval among women.  It's been pointed out, though, that Hillary's poll numbers, and approval ratings, are nothing to write home about.  If Trump can start pushing down his disapproval ratings, he might suddenly find himself more competitive with Hillary.  Indeed, some polls actually show them almost neck-and-neck already in general-election matchups.  Do not underestimate Trump.  He's tapped into something real in the electorate, and, rightly or wrongly, millions of voters are drawn to him.

There have also been a surprising number of references in the last three days to Hillary's FBI problems.  I don't know why this is happening.  Maybe her "inevitability" is forcing journalists to look at the one thing that can un-inevitable her.  And yet, I've seen no substantive reporting on the probe that is actually new. 

The election is still six months away, ten lifetimes in politics.

May 2, 2016       Permalink

MONEY PROBLEMS – AT 9:47 A.M. ET:  You've been hearing much about Puerto Rico's debt problems.  Today is a critical day.  The issue can potentially be important during our presidential campaign, as many Hispanic voters have feelings about Puerto Rico.  From Bloomberg: 

Puerto Rico will default on a $422 million bond payment for its Government Development Bank, escalating what is turning into the biggest crisis ever in the $3.7 trillion market that U.S. state and local entities use to access financing.

Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla invoked a debt moratorium law approved last month, saying during a televised address Sunday that the commonwealth needs to focus on providing essential services. The bank, already operating under an emergency period, had until the end of Monday to make the payment. The Government Development Bank reached a tentative framework agreement with investors who hold $900 million of its debt late Sunday under which creditors would accept a potential haircut, leaving them 47 cents on the dollar of the face value of their original securities, the bank said in a statement. The parties agreed to keep discussions out of court while they negotiate.
“Faced with the inability to meet the demands of our creditors and the needs of our people, I had to make a choice,” Garcia Padilla said during his 10-minute speech. “I decided that essential services for the 3.5 million American citizens in Puerto Rico came first.”

COMMENT:  There is a campaign underway to have Washington bail out Puerto Rico.  There is also a counter-campaign.  You may have seen ads for it on TV.

With the Republicans seriously vulnerable among Hispanic voters because of Donald Trump's coarse comments about illegal immigrants, the plight of Puerto Rico can be used to great effect by the Democrats.  On the other hand, the Dems must be careful not to alienate others.  Bailouts are unpopular, with many people believing that the need for them stems from poor or corrupt management.

May 2, 2016       Permalink

EUROPE TERROR WARNING – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  We try to keep up with the real world as we're fighting this bizarre election campaign.  There is a new, and important, terror warning in Europe.  From AP, via Fox: 

BERLIN – The head of Germany's domestic intelligence agency says the deadly attacks in Paris and Brussels show the "highly complex" nature of the terrorism threat facing Europe.

Hans-Georg Maassen told a conference Monday that extremists returning from combat zones, home-grown extremists and extremists who have come in with Europe's recent wave of migrants were all involved in the recent attacks for which the Islamic State group has claimed responsibility.

Maassen says intelligence agencies now "need to take into account multiple attack scenarios by multiple cells against different targets and possibly over many days."

To help, he called for better cross-border information exchange. The German spy chief says "to counter criminal groups operating across borders, we need the enhanced international cooperation of security agencies."

COMMENT:  Please notice that an increasing number of pundits are warning of a terror attack here during our election campaign.  Some are saying that a terror attack within three months of the election could put Donald Trump in the White House.

That is speculation, but informed speculation.  I would be very concerned.  ISIS might well try to influence our electoral result.

May 2,  2016     Permalink